Two named storms formed in May, so a depression forming on June 1, the first day of the hurricane season, shouldn’t be much of a surprise.

Tropical Depression 3 formed in the Bay of Campeche just west of the Yucatan Peninsula Monday. The National Hurricane Center forecast keeps it hugging the Mexican coast but still becoming Tropical Storm Cristobal later this week. That’s about all the certainty.

While there’s confidence that something could eventually move north and affect the northern Gulf Coast, the NHC isn’t sure what shape it’d be in, especially if it comes ashore in Mexico and dissipates, leaving behind a different circulation center to move north.

“It should be noted, though, that in 5 days there could be a cyclone near the forecast point that is not actually TD-3,” NHC forecaster Jack Beven said in the storm discussion. “Given the complexity of the situation, both the track and intensity forecasts are currently low confidence. However, either of the current scenarios will result in widespread heavy rains over portions of southern Mexico and Central America.”

The spaghetti plot of forecast models bring no consensus either — it looks like a squashed spider.

Let’s see what Day 2 of the hurricane season brings us.