The biggest question for most everybody during this COVID-19 pandemic has been where the finish line rests.
When is this all going to be over?
The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation may have given a glimpse of that, having done extensive modeling to provide projections of when certain parts of the country, and the United States as a whole, will see its peak in fatalities and use of hospital resources, assuming the continuation of strong social distancing and other protective measures.
The full package of projections can be seen here. Statistics are broken down by state and the U.S. as a whole, but not by county or city.
The info is a mixed bag for Florida. Peak hospital resource use is projected to be on May 3, a little later than a majority of other states. In the projection, While just under 17,000 of the state’s 20,000 hospital beds would be needed at the peak — that’s the median projection; a spread of 3,000 to 45,000 is possible — over 2,500 ICU beds could be needed, exhausting the state’s 1,695 available. At peak, over 2,000 ventilators are expected to be needed.
Statistically, IHME projects 6,766 Florida COVID-19 deaths through the end of June, maxing out at around 170 per day during the first week of May. The statistical spread ranges from 1,550 to 16,830 in the state.
The national numbers show a statistical need for over 224,000 hospital beds, 33,000 ICU beds and 26,753 ventilators. The peak in COVID-19 related deaths is expected around April 15, reaching over 2,200 per day (again, the statistical average, it could possibly be over 3,500) and expected to be over 82,000 when the final ones are counted in July. The possible spread is from about 40,000 to 140,000.
On Sunday, White House Coronavirus task force expert Dr. Anthony Fauci said “between 100,000 and 200,000” people may die from COVID-19.