Hurricane Dorian is a slow moving, extraordinarily powerful Category 4 hurricane that will remain extremely dangerous for parts of the Bahamas, Florida, Georgia, and the Carolinas well into next week.

Dorian’s center is about 125 miles east of Great Abaco in the Bahamas, and the hurricane has begun to slow down as projected and is moving toward the west at 5 to 10 mph.

A hurricane warning is in effect for much of the northwestern Bahamas, including Freeport, Grand Bahama, and Nassau, New Providence Island. Andros Island is in a hurricane watch.

A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds (39-plus mph), conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A tropical storm watch has been issued for portions of the east coast of Florida from Deerfield Beach to Sebastian Inlet.
Tropical storm watches mean winds of 40 mph or greater are possible within 48 hours.

Dorian’s Potential Timing

Sunday: Dorian’s hurricane siege will begin in the northwest Bahamas as it continues to slow down. Tropical storm-force winds may begin to arrive in parts of Florida overnight into early Monday. Large swells should begin to arrive at the coast from North Carolina to Florida.

Monday: Dorian may still be hammering the northwest Bahamas as it crawls slowly. Bands of rain, strong winds may affect parts of Florida. How strong the winds will be depends on how close the center of Dorian is to the Florida coast, which is uncertain at this time.

Tuesday-Thursday: Dorian is expected to move north, then northeast near the coasts of Florida, Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina. The exact track is very uncertain, ranging from a track far enough offshore to keep hurricane force winds away from land, to a landfall anywhere in this zone.

Friday-Saturday: Dorian is then expected to race off the Northeast Seaboard, but could track close enough to bring rain and some wind to the Virginia Tidewater, Nantucket, Martha’s Vineyard and Cape Cod, before it heads toward the Canadian Maritimes by next weekend.

Uncertainty continues to be high when it comes to exact forecast impacts in the southeastern U.S. However, all interests in the Bahamas, Florida, Georgia and the Carolinas should have their hurricane plans ready and monitor the forecast of Dorian closely.