National weather forecasters are tracking a disturbance north of the Yukatan that could develop into a tropical depression or tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico this first week of hurricane season potentially bringing soaking rains to parts of Florida, Cuba and the Bahamas late this week into the weekend.

This broad, large low, known to meteorologists as a Central American gyre (CAG), could include some remnant spin and moisture from what was once Hurricane Agatha, which made a Category 2 landfall Monday, the strongest May hurricane to landfall along Mexico’s Pacific coast dating to 1949.

Forecast guidance suggests a tropical depression or tropical storm could form in the southeast Gulf of Mexico Thursday or Friday. If it becomes a storm, it would be named Alex, the first name in the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season name list.

The National Hurricane Center has tentatively scheduled the first hurricane hunter mission into the system for early Thursday afternoon.