NOAA Archives - Positively Osceola

Hurricane Season has Started: NOAA Predicts Active Season with Up to 5 Major Storms — Are You Prepared?

Keith Ronan — Mon, 02 Jun 2025 09:19:29 +0000

The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season officially begins today, June 1 and runs through November 30. This period marks the time when tropical cyclones are most likely to form in the Atlantic Ocean.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicts an above-normal hurricane season for 2025. The forecast includes:

13 to 19 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher
6 to 10 hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher
3 to 5 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4, or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher)

This outlook is influenced by factors such as warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic and ENSO-neutral conditions, which neither suppress nor enhance hurricane a ctivity.

2025 Atlantic Hurricane Names

The World Meteorological Organization has designated the following names for storms in the Atlantic basin for 2025:

Andrea
Barry
Chantal
Dexter
Erin
Fernand
Gabrielle
Humberto
Imelda
Jerry
Karen
Lorenzo
Melissa

Nestor
Olga
Pablo
Rebekah
Sebastien
Tanya
Van
Wendy

These names are part of a rotating list used every six years, with names retired if a storm is particularly deadly or costly.

Importance of Preparedness

Given the forecast for an active season, residents in hurricane-prone areas, including Osceola County, should take proactive steps to prepare:

Home Inspections: Ensure your home can withstand hurricane conditions. Trusted local inspectors like Tommy Joynes from Buy Your Side Home Inspections offer comprehensive evaluations to identify and address potential vulnerabilities.
Flood Insurance: Standard homeowners’ insurance policies typically do not cover flood damage. Consider purchasing flood insurance to protect your property from potential flooding.
Emergency Kits: Assemble a kit with essentials such as non-perishable food, water, medications, flashlights, batteries, and important documents.
Evacuation Plans: Know your evacuation routes and have a plan in place for where to go if an evacuation is ordered.
Stay Informed: Monitor local news and weather updates. The Kissimmee Utility Authority (KUA) provides a free, bilingual Hurricane Handbook with valuable information on storm preparedness. It can be accessed at https://kua.com/storm/.

By taking these steps, you can help ensure the safety and security of yourself and your loved ones during the hurricane season.

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Save on Hurricane Preparation: 2024 Florida Tax Free Holiday Runs Through June 14

Keith Ronan — Sun, 02 Jun 2024 11:59:32 +0000

The 2024 Tax Free Holiday in Florida aims to help residents save money while preparing for the hurricane season by providing tax exemptions on essential items. The current tax-free holiday runs through June 14, 2024, then returns August 24-September 6, 2024. Here’s a breakdown of the items covered and their respective price limits:

$10 or less: Wet dog or cat food if sold individually or the equivalent in a box or case.
$15 or less: Manual can openers, collapsible or travel-sized food or water bowls for pets, cat litter pans, pet waste disposal bags, hamster or rabbit substrate.
$20 or less: Reusable ice, leashes, collars, and muzzles for pets, pet pads.
$25 or less: Cat litter weighing 25 pounds or less.
$40 or less: Portable self-powered light sources, pet beds.
$50 or less: Portable self-powered radios, two-way radios, weather-band radios, gas or diesel fuel tanks, batteries (specific sizes: AA-cell, AAA-cell, C-cell, D-cell, 6-volt, 9-volt).
$60 or less: Non-electric food storage coolers, portable power banks.
$70 or less: Smoke detectors, smoke alarms, fire extinguishers, carbon monoxide detectors, tarpaulins or other flexible waterproof sheeting, ground anchor systems, portable pet kennels or carriers, dry dog or cat food weighing 50 pounds or less, over-the-counter pet medications.
$100 or less: Portable generators used to provide light, communications, or preserve food during a power outage.
$3,000 or less: N/A (The uploaded document does not specify items for this category.)

The sales tax holiday does not apply to the rental or repair of any of the qualifying items. Additionally, the sales tax holiday does not apply to sales in a theme park, entertainment complex, public lodging establishment or airport

This tax holiday is an excellent opportunity for Florida residents to stock up on hurricane preparedness supplies and save money in the process. For more detailed information, visit Florida’s Disaster Preparedness Sales Tax Holiday .

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Prepare for a Busy Hurricane Season: NOAA Forecasts Increased Storm Activity for 2024

Keith Ronan — Tue, 28 May 2024 08:59:04 +0000

NOAA National Weather Service forecasters at the Climate Prediction Center predict above-normal hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin this year. NOAA’s outlook for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, which spans from June 1 to November 30, predicts an 85% chance of an above-normal season, a 10% chance of a near-normal season, and a 5% chance of a below-normal season.

NOAA forecasts 17 to 25 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), 8 to 13 of which could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 4 to 7 major hurricanes (category 3, 4, or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher). Forecasters have a 70% confidence in these ranges.

The upcoming Atlantic hurricane season is expected to have above-normal activity due to a confluence of factors, including near-record warm ocean temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean, development of La Nina conditions in the Pacific, reduced Atlantic trade winds, and less wind shear, all of which favor tropical storm formation.

“With another active hurricane season approaching, NOAA’s commitment to keeping every American informed with life-saving information is unwavering,” said NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad, Ph.D. Enhanced communications and new tools for hurricane analysis and forecasting are part of NOAA’s efforts to improve preparedness and response.

FEMA Deputy Administrator Erik A. Hooks emphasizes the importance of preparation: “Severe weather and emergencies can happen at any moment, which is why individuals and communities need to be prepared today.”

As one of the strongest El Ninos ever observed nears its end, NOAA scientists predict a quick transition to La Nina conditions, which are conducive to Atlantic hurricane activity. Abundant oceanic heat content in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea creates more energy to fuel storm development.

Human-caused climate change is warming our ocean globally and in the Atlantic basin, leading to sea level rise, which increases the risk of storm surge. Enhanced communications in store for 2024 season include expanded Spanish language text products and an experimental version of the forecast cone graphic that includes inland tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings.

NOAA will implement improvements to its forecast communications, decision support, and storm recovery efforts this season. Two new forecast models developed by NOAA researchers will go into operation: the Modular Ocean Model (MOM6) and SDCON, predicting tropical cyclone rapid intensification. NOAA’s new generation of Flood Inundation Mapping will also provide valuable information to emergency and water managers.

System upgrades include coastal weather buoy enhancements, additional observations using Directional Wave Spectra Drifters, deployment of Saildrones, observational underwater gliders, and a new lightweight dropsonde called Streamsonde for real-time wind data collection.

Prepare for the upcoming hurricane season by utilizing Kissimmee Utility Authority’s Hurricane Preparedness Guide, available at their Carroll Street office or downloadable at KUA.com/storm. Both the print and digital versions are bilingual.

SOURCE: NOAA

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Florida Braces for Possible Tropical Storm Idalia Formation and Impact

Keith Ronan — Sat, 26 Aug 2023 11:06:16 +0000

The likelihood of the emergence of a tropical depression or storm that could affect Florida is on the rise, particularly as we approach Sunday and Monday. There’s a strong possibility that this system could move into Florida sometime around Tuesday or Wednesday, followed by a potential impact on the Southeast coast. However, it’s premature to ascertain the extent of the effects in these regions.

Currently situated in the northwestern Caribbean, the region of low pressure, accompanied by showers and thunderstorms, has displayed ongoing signs of increased organization on Saturday.

The current environmental conditions appear conducive for the ongoing evolution of this system in the coming days. There is a likelihood that a tropical depression will develop, either later in the weekend or early in the following week, as the system gradually advances northward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Individuals in the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, western Cuba, and Florida are recommended to carefully monitor the progression of this system.

According to the projected path, the system is expected to veer northwards towards Florida’s Gulf Coast by Tuesday or Wednesday.

As per the National Hurricane Center, there is a 60% chance of formation within the next two days and a 90% chance within the subsequent seven days.

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Gulf Disturbance Could Evolve into Tropical Threat: Florida Monitors Incoming Weather

Keith Ronan — Fri, 25 Aug 2023 11:06:38 +0000

An area of low pressure could strengthen over the northwestern Caribbean Sea in the next couple of days. Some gradual development of this system is possible over the weekend and early next week, potentially growing into a tropical depression or storm that could move slowly northward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The disturbance could develop and move east anywhere from Florida’s panhandle to South Florida.

The European weather model shows the storm moving toward the west coast of Florida, possibly near Tampa, while the American weather model doesn’t see the disturbance strengthening into a storm at all. Either way, the disturbance could bring Central Florida and Osceola County showers late Tuesday into Wednesday.

We will continue to bring updates as the National Hurricane Center provides more development information.

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NOAA forecasters increase Atlantic hurricane season prediction to above normal, preparation is key to safety

Keith Ronan — Fri, 18 Aug 2023 09:38:13 +0000

Scientists at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center — a division of the National Weather Service — have increased their prediction for the ongoing 2023 Atlantic hurricane season from a near-normal level of activity to an above-normal level of activity. Forecasters believe that current ocean and atmospheric conditions, such as record-warm Atlantic sea surface temperatures, are likely to counterbalance the usually limiting atmospheric conditions associated with the ongoing El Nino event.

NOAA forecasters have increased the likelihood of an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season to 60% (increased from the outlook issued in May, which predicted a 30% chance). The likelihood of near-normal activity has decreased to 25%, down from the 40% chances outlined in May’s outlook. This new update gives the Atlantic a 15% chance of seeing a below-normal season.

NOAA’s update to the 2023 outlook — which covers the entire six-month hurricane season that ends on Nov. 30 — calls for 14-21 named storms (winds of 39 mph or greater), of which 6-11 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or greater). Of those, 2-5 could become major hurricanes (winds of 111 mph or greater). NOAA provides these ranges with a 70% confidence. These updated ranges include storms that have already formed this season.

The Atlantic basin experienced an active start to the hurricane season with five storms that have reached at least tropical storm strength, including one hurricane already. An average hurricane season produces 14 named storms, of which seven become hurricanes, including three major hurricanes.

“The main climate factors expected to influence the 2023 Atlantic hurricane activity are the ongoing El Nino and the warm phase of the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation, including record-warm Atlantic sea surface temperatures,” said Matthew Rosencrans, lead hurricane season forecaster with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “Considering those factors, the updated outlook calls for more activity, so we urge everyone to prepare now for the continuing season.”

El Nino conditions are currently being observed and there is a greater than 95% chance that El Nino will continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter, according to the latest ENSO discussion from the Climate Prediction Center. El Nino usually results in atmospheric conditions that help to lessen tropical activity during the Atlantic hurricane season. So far, those limiting conditions have been slow to develop and climate scientists are forecasting that the associated impacts that tend to limit tropical cyclone activity may not be in place for much of the remaining hurricane season.

A below-normal wind shear forecast, slightly below-normal Atlantic trade winds and a near- or above-normal West African Monsoon were also key factors in shaping this updated seasonal forecast.

NOAA’s hurricane outlooks are forecasts of overall season activity, not landfalls. A storm’s landfall is usually the result of mesoscale weather patterns and are typically predictable within roughly one week of a storm approaching a landmass.

NOAA urges everyone in vulnerable areas to have a well-thought-out hurricane plan and stay informed through official channels as this season progresses.

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New low pressure system in the Atlantic could grow and threaten Florida’s East Coast, National Hurricane Center says

Keith Ronan — Mon, 24 Jul 2023 18:43:52 +0000

The National Hurricane Center is tracking a weather system in the Atlantic that they say could possibly grow into a tropical depression or more off the east coast of Florida.

The NHC’s 2 p.m. tropical update showed a weak low pressure system a few hundred miles south of Bermuda that could develop into something more as it nears the east coast of U.S., and as we in Central Florida do during this time of the year, we will keep a keen eye on the system.

“Environmental conditions are expected to become marginally conducive for some gradual development of this system as
it moves towards the southeastern U.S. coast later this week and into the weekend,” forecasters said.

The 2pm NHC updates gives the low pressure system a 20% chance to form into a tropical system in the next seven days.

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Rip Current Safety for Kids When Visiting the Beach this Summer

Keith Ronan — Fri, 31 May 2019 17:54:52 +0000

Florida is known for its beautiful sandy beaches and what better time to visit the beach than in the summer. The sun, the sand, and the surf sound so relaxing but just because we’re having fun, doesn’t mean we can forget about safety.

Rip currents account for 80% of beach rescues and can be dangerous or deadly if you don’t know what to do. It’s simple stuff, but we can’t take it for granted.

Here is some safety information on rip currents from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).you should know before taking a trip to the beach this summer.

Know before you go. Check local beach forecasts before you head to the beach, and always swim near lifeguards. Look for any warning signs or flags. If you’re unsure about conditions, ask a lifeguard. And know how to swim before you venture in.
If you do happen to be caught in a rip current, stay calm. It won’t pull you under – it’ll just pull you away from shore. If you try to fight the rip current and swim against it, you’ll just get worn out. Instead – float!
If you can, wave and yell to get the attention of lifeguards and people on shore to let them know you need help.
If you’re a good swimmer, swim parallel to shore until you’ve cleared the pull of the rip current. Swim with the waves, allowing them to push you to shore.
If you can, wave and yell to get the attention of lifeguards and people on shore to let them know you need help.
If you’re on shore and see someone in trouble in a rip current do not go in after them. Instead – call for help! If a lifeguard is not available, throw in something that floats or extend a reaching object, but don’t try to be a hero and make the rescue yourself. Even trained lifeguards only attempt a rescue using a flotation device.

Rip currents can be dangerous, but if you know your options, survey your situation, and stay calm, you can stay safe and continue to have fun in the surf, sand, and sun.

Source: Ocean Today

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NOAA Researchers Discover Sunscreen Chemicals Threaten Corals and Other Marine Life

Keith Ronan — Thu, 23 May 2019 17:14:11 +0000

This summer think about which skincare products you use, the one you may have in your beach bag could be harming our coral reefs and marine life. Here is what you need to know about choosing the best sunscreen for you and the environment.

Healthy coral reefs are one of the most valuable ecosystems on Earth, providing billions of dollars in economic and environmental services, such as food, coastal protection, and tourism. However, coral ecosystems around the world face serious threats from a number of sources, including climate change, unsustainable fishing, land-based pollution, coastal development, disease, and invasive species. Scientists have recently discovered that some of the chemicals found in sunscreen and other personal health products also threaten the health of coral reefs.

Below are two studies, led by NOAA researchers and partners on two chemicals found in sunscreen. How these and other compounds, affect reef ecosystems remains an active area of research among scientists.

Effects of the Sunscreen UV Filter, Oxybenzone (Benzophenone-3)

In a 2016 study, a team of international scientists found that a common chemical in many sunscreen lotions and cosmetics is highly toxic to juvenile corals and other marine life. Oxybenzone, or BP-3, is found in more than 3,500 skin care products worldwide for protection against the sun’s harmful effects. This compound has been found entering the environment both through wastewater effluent and directly from swimmers wearing sunscreens.

A study, Archives of Environmental Contamination and Toxicology published in the journal showed four major toxic effects in early, developing coral:

Increased susceptibility to bleaching;
DNA damage (genotoxicity);
Abnormal skeleton growth (via endocrine disruption);
and gross deformities of baby coral.

The study concludes that nontoxic oxybenzone alternatives are critical for protecting reefs and the exacerbating effects posed by climate change and bleaching.

Effects of the Skincare UV filter, Benzophenone-2

National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science (NOAA) researchers and their partners discovered that a sunscreen chemical commonly used in many soaps, cosmetics, and body fragrances is highly toxic to corals. The study took place in 2013 and was published in the December 2013 issue of Ecotoxicology. The team’s data show that even very low concentrations of benzophenone-2, or BP-2, can quickly kill juvenile corals. BP-2 is an additive used in personal-care products since the 1960s to protect against the damaging effects of ultraviolet light.

The team also found that benzophenone-2 or BP-2 causes colorful corals to bleach, and can potentially induce or increase the frequency of mutation in corals by causing damage to their DNA. BP-2 is not removed from most municipal wastewater treatment facilities. The discharge from this chemical is often directly released in coastal waters of the Caribbean and the Indo-Pacific, threatening near-shore coral reefs.

Although pollution is a major cause of coral reef degradation and is the easiest factor to mitigate, BP-2 as a pollutant has largely been ignored, according to C.A. Downs, lead author of the study.

“In the case of BP-2 pollution, there are a range of options that can be considered for reducing its impact to reefs—from working with manufacturers and innovating more environmentally sustainable products to educating consumers regarding product selection and product disposal,” he said.

Chemicals in sunscreens that can harm marine life include: Oxybenzone, Benzophenone-1, Benzophenone-8, OD-PABA, 4-Methylbenzylidene camphor, 3-Benzylidene camphor, nano-Titanium dioxide, nano-Zinc oxide

How we can protect ourselves and marine life? Seek shade between 10 am & 2 pm, and use Ultraviolet Protection Factor (UPF) sunwear. If you enjoy spending time outside do yourself and the environment a favor and choose to use sunscreens with chemicals that don’t harm marine life. Together we can make a positive difference in the environment by educating one another and making smart choices when it comes to suncare.

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