From the National Hurricane Centers, 11 am update, Tropical Storm Elsa has jogged a bit east placing Central Florida within the cone of uncertainty. However, it is still too early to accurately forecast the path of the tropical storm.
With its formation early in the morning of July 1, Tropical Storm Elsa dethroned 2020’s Tropical Storm Edouard as the earliest E-named storm in the Atlantic basin. Edouard formed July 6, 2020.
Elsa is forecast to pass near or over portions of the Windward Islands or the southern Leeward Islands on Friday, the National Hurricane Center has reported as of 5 am. It is expected to then move into the eastern Caribbean Sea late Friday, and move close to the southern coast of Hispaniola on Saturday.
Some intensification is likely for the next day or two since Elsa is expected to be in an environment of warm sea-surface temperatures, fairly low vertical wind shear, and high mid-level relative humidity. The potential interaction of the storm with the mountainous landmasses of the Greater Antilles later in the forecast period could disrupt the circulation somewhat.